Even more than usual, Vladimir Putin is proving to be an absolute boon to the media’s speculation wing right now. The decisions he has made over the past few weeks have been so unthinkable—and at times so bewildering—that the press has tied itself into knots trying to ascertain exactly what’s going on in his mind.

Has he gone mad? Is his invasion of Ukraine all part of some fiendish game of four-dimensional Vulcan chess that we’re all too dumb to understand? Will he really risk nuclear destruction just for a reclaimed scrap of the U.S.S.R.? So far, the best minds in the business have been unable to figure out exactly what makes Putin tick.