Donald Trump loves a bit of American exceptionalism. But here’s one accolade that we won’t be hearing from the mouth of the president: the US is set to be the only major economy to suffer a decline in tourism spending this year.
The verdict comes from the World Travel and Tourism Council, which presumably knows its stuff. And while it is just a projection, it isn’t exactly out of line with some of the things that we know are happening, with foreign visitors to the States down by 12 percent year on year.
Given the pugilistic state of American politics, arguing over whether Mr. Trump should share part of the blame or not is always a risky exercise. But the Maga hardcore would have to admit that this administration hasn’t helped itself when it comes to international tourism, showing, at best, a cavalier attitude towards America’s image abroad.
Of course, the president isn’t exactly anti-tourism. He’s repeatedly talked up events like the 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, which are expected to draw more than 50 million visitors between them. But all too often, tourism seems to take second billing to other, more Trumpian goals.
Border security would be the obvious one. But while Trump may have triumphed in last year’s election by promising to secure the border, did anyone really cast their vote on the basis that more tourists would end up shackled and deported for minor infractions, as we’ve seen with cases like Rebecca Burke – the young woman from Wales detained for 19 days?
Some in the administration have suggested that one potential problem with foreign visitors is the possibility that some “overstayers” will slip through the net and end up abusing their visa to work in the gray economy. Already, the Trump administration has shaken up the rules around student visas with that concern in mind.
Now the US government is set to do similar with tourism, hence the requirement for certain nationals (currently those from Zambia and Malawi) to cough up a $15,000 security deposit in order to obtain a tourist visa. The administration has suggested that the pilot program could be extended to other nations too, in time.
To be fair, Britons should be safe either way, given that US government numbers suggest that only a tiny fraction of us take liberties with our ESTA visa-waiver permits. Though those travelers who need a full visa may end up having to cough up for the new $250 visa integrity fee, included within Trump’s signature “One Big Beautiful Bill”.
In any event, arguing over the exact details is only part of the picture. The bigger point is that this bombardment of tougher rules will have already sent a signal around the world that the US is becoming less welcoming to tourism.
And that’s before we get to the increased fixation with vetting travelers’ social media, like the French researcher refused entry in the spring after border officials found messages and memes that were seen as anti-Trump.
“Anti-American Attitudes”
Again, the underlying issue is nothing new: US border agents have long had the right to ask to see your phone. But the Trump administration appears to be pursuing the policy with a new ferocity, stretching the definition of national security to include what many of us would consider legitimate political opinions.
“If you look at the memo from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services this month, you can see this administration is taking a hard stance on what they perceive as anti-American attitudes,” says Christi Jackson, a partner with immigration lawyers Laura Devine. “That is always going to be difficult to define in reality, particularly when people are criticizing the US government in ways that would be considered freedom of speech elsewhere.”
Could this chilling effect be contributing to the reported 10 percent decline in tourism from some European countries? While it’s impossible to say for sure, it is worth noting that surveys do suggest that some travelers (including Britons) are less likely to visit the US under the current administration.
Still, we Europeans are a tiny drop in the ocean compared with the Canadians, who make up nearly one quarter of foreign tourists. But thanks to Trump’s aggressive rhetoric towards their country, many have been voting with their feet: Canadian visitors to the US were down 33 percent in June compared with the previous year.
Maybe some Maga hardliners will take pride in the fact that the lily-livered liberals are staying away. But for now, the situation doesn’t appear to have dented the political consensus that tourism is a good thing for the States. In Congress, some Republican and Democrat politicians have put aside their differences to lobby for tourism.
In March, the Democratic congresswoman Dina Titus – whose seat contains part of the Las Vegas Strip – coordinated a bipartisan letter, calling on the Trump administration to nominate a tourism secretary within the commerce department. Despite being signed by some Republican lawmakers, the plea has so far been ignored.
Trade Concerns
Others have made the case that a huge tourism push would help the president in achieving another of his perennial obsessions – the trade deficit. During the first Trump administration, the economist and former Trump adviser Stephen Moore authored a paper arguing that tourism generates the biggest trade surplus for the US outside of financial services.
The administration has already found one way to increase the money flowing in from foreign visitors, with provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill to increase the ESTA charge from $21 to $40 at some point in the future. The higher charges won’t be popular with families heading to Orlando or New York, but they will bring in more revenue for US government coffers.
In the end, though, perhaps the best way to convince the president would be the obvious one. From rip-roaring stock markets to huge investment deals from oil-rich Gulf monarchies, Donald J Trump loves to tout his bombastic statistics about how America is doing better than ever. Surely it wouldn’t be too difficult to add tourism to that list?
Right now, though, it seems like tourism is pretty low on the pecking order in Maga-town. If current trends persist – and that bombshell World Travel and Tourism Council prediction comes true – maybe that will change. Particularly if some of Trump’s political adversaries start making mileage out of the situation.
If that fails, we can opt for the one gambit that will definitely get his attention: let’s all holiday in Canada instead.
Robert Jackman is a U.K.-based journalist
