We suspect the American flag is flying at half-mast in some areas of the country, if only metaphorically. The most unlikely candidate in history for the nation’s highest office has staged a sweeping comeback victory that almost half the country believes will kill or cripple American democracy—and the other half thinks will save it. How interesting that there wasn’t so much as a whisper of election fraud from the winning party.
This time, there will be no checks or balances to temper the president-elect’s fever grievances. The Senate and the House will be Republican-controlled, the majority of the Supreme Court is already well to the right, and a militia of MAGA zealots led by Stephen Miller is poised to purge the executive branch—and, indeed, the human assets of the working day-to-day government—of dissenters who try to put the brakes on Project 2025, the Trump-affiliated Heritage Foundation’s plan for remaking the country in His image.
But, as the ancients understood, two things stand in the way of even the most ambitious think-tank-generated agendas: fate and character.
Whatever the returning president has planned for his second term could be easily derailed by an international crisis, a financial meltdown, or even another pandemic. Trump barely survived the coronavirus in October of 2020, and the country barely survived his recovery.
George W. Bush went into office in 2001 vowing to be the “education president,” but, after the attacks of 9/11, he ended up defined by disastrous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Americans are still paying the price for his folly, notably because those conflicts helped Trump exploit a war-weary nation’s xenophobia and isolationism.
John F. Kennedy had the Cuban missile crisis. Lyndon Johnson had Vietnam. Jimmy Carter never recovered from the OPEC oil embargo, stagflation, and the Iranian hostage crisis. Barack Obama had to reckon with the 2008 financial crisis. None of them could have foreseen the events that would disrupt and define their presidencies.
Then there is the man himself. Richard Nixon, another president re-elected in a landslide, was undone by his own paranoia, crudeness, and recklessness. These same traits worked in Trump’s favor during the campaign. But they could backfire in the confines of the Oval Office. All those chiefs of staff, national-security advisers, and White House aides who were fired or quit during Trump’s first term stepped into the West Wing expecting their loyalty to be rewarded in kind. How wrong they were.
The returning commander in chief trusts no one. He inspires only fear, and, inevitably, the new raft of people he chooses to advise him—regardless of their fealty to the MAGA banner—will be lied to, blamed, cheated, and brutally insulted as they’re kicked out the door.
As the ancients understood, two things stand in the way of even the most ambitious think-tank-generated agendas: fate and character.
The incumbent’s family can be counted on to keep things on an uneven keel. The rivalries and power struggles pitting Melania against Ivanka and her husband, Jared, will only be compounded by the rising expectations of Don Jr. and Eric, who stepped up during the 2024 campaign while Ivanka and Jared sat it out in their $24 million spread in Miami. Those two bearded wonders will expect to be rewarded in the second term, Succession-style.
Then there is the incoming vice president. So far, J. D. Vance has mastered a hard-nosed obsequiousness that got him on the ticket and carried him through the campaign. But on day one of Trump’s second term, Vance will be starting his own 2028 presidential campaign. And if there is anything the incoming president cannot stand, it’s sharing the limelight. Vance will nevertheless find secret allies in the Senate and House. However popular Trump may be at the moment with the rank and file, he is not-so-secretly despised and mistrusted by many Republican leaders, and he will re-enter the White House as a 78-year-old lame duck.
For the foreseeable future, however, the Republican Party is the party of Trump, and the party of Trump is now a microcosm of what America has become. The Democrats lost the working-class vote in 2016, and it appears that they are on their way to losing the middle class as well. They must quickly move past denial, anger, bargaining, and depression, and begin the long and difficult work of becoming a majority party once again.
This may mean focusing less on identity issues and more on trying to connect with average Americans. A couple of generations ago, that guy driving by in a pickup was probably a Democrat. Today, he’s more likely to be a Republican.
In the meantime, though, we can let fate and character run their course.
Graydon Carter and Alessandra Stanley are the Co-Editors of Air Mail
